The "Year 2000 (Y2K) Problem" Problem

I'm not generally the kind of person that says "I told you so", so this is difficult for me, but
I told you so!

Freeware:

Tips, Tricks and Commentary:

"... Almost all computer-based systems will be adversely affected by the arrival of the Year 2000 (01/01/2000), unless action is taken now to replace, update, or change components of these systems to eliminate or otherwise mitigate the effects of this event. Fixing and testing the problem poses a significant problem for system and particularly software maintenance. ..."

-- The Miter Corporation

While I believe that this will be a real problem for some organizations, I also believe that it is not nearly as prevalent as others may say. The naysayers suggest that the records of insurance and investment companies, banks and savings & loans, the Social Security Administration, in fact, most of this country's financial records will become unusable on January 1, 2000 because the birthdates (and other dates) of customers will be unreliable. The truth is that many of these organizations have had to accommodate birthdates (and other dates) into the prior century (i.e.., 1897), and so there is no reason to expect that there should be any trouble going into the next.

As far as PC's are concerned, the BIOS installed in most all current computers can handle dates well into the next century, as can most current applications. If your BIOS or application can't handle it, an upgrade is probably available.

In addition, since computers become twice as powerful every 18 months and brand new PC's become obsolescent after only 3 years, most of the PC's in use today will be gone before the year 2000, presumably to be replaced by computers which are capable of handling dates in the next century.

If your PC's are on a network, they probably already get the date and time from a server (in NetWare, the command is "SysTime"; in Windows, it's "Net Time". Talk to your network administrator about this). So, it doesn't matter if the BIOS can't handle dates into the next century, the operating systems can!

Therefore, I believe there is little for most of us to worry about. It won't be near as bad as you may have heard. I do believe, however, that there will be enough problems to allow the portenders of doom to say "I told you so."

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Now comes the real Y2K problem...

The REAL Y2K problem is all the bug ridden systems that were rushed into production by system houses that saw Y2K as a marketing opportunity. and all the bug ridden systems that were rushed into operation by companies that thought that their existing systems weren't "Y2K compliant". The real cost of the Y2K problem is the cost of cleaning up after all these other bugs.

Case in point: A large candy manufacturer couldn't ship candy (indeed, they couldn't even make candy) in time for Halloween because a popular "Y2K compliant" system that controls their entire process was so full of bugs that they couldn't even shut it off and do everything manually.

Case in point: A large city hasn't been able to pay any of its employees any of the overtime pay they have been due for almost the past year because a popular "Y2K compliant" payroll system they installed, can't calculate overtime correctly, so the operators were told not to enter it.

Case in point: A large bank that issues a popular credit card had switched to a "Y2K compliant" application that issued duplicate, and even triplicate accounts to new account holders (They had to cancel all of the new accounts and override the application to create a single correct account).

These and other problems are likely to plague us for years to come, because of the kneejerk reactions of people with little or no information upon which to base their decisions.

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How does Y2K affect a PC?

There are 2 and only 2 Y2K bugs that may be in the hardware of a PC.

First: the computer may not store the state of the CenturyRollover bit.

As the date progresses past 12/31/1999, the computer will recognize that the century has advanced, increment the value of the CenturyRollover bit and continue to operate correctly. But it does not store this value, so when you turn the computer off and back on again, this bit has its initial value and the computer's clock/calendar goes back to 1980.

This Y2K bug goes all the way back to the 6 MHz IBM PC/AT.

You can continue to operate these computers into Y2K and beyond. You just need to set the clock every time you turn them on. This is a simple matter if the computer is connected to a network that has a server. In NetWare, the command is "SysTime"; in Windows, it's "Net Time". You would simply include these commands in the Login Scripts.

Second: the computer stores the value in the CenturyRollover bit, but in a memory location that is used in calculating the BIOS CheckSum.

The BIOS contains a CheckSum value that is calculated based on the correct values in a variety of memory locations. When you turn the computer on, it runs through several Power-On-Self-Tests (POST), one of which is to compare the value of the CheckSum it just calculated with a value stored in ROM. If they match, the computer proceeds to boot normally; if they don't match, the computer halts. If it halts once, it will halt every time at exactly the same point, and if this happens, you can't fix it.

So, if a computer does correctly store the CenturyRollover bit, but then incorrectly calculates the CheckSum based on the memory location that holds the CenturyRollover bit, then the computer will fail irrevocably when it is turned on after 1/1/2000.

This Y2K Bug is very rare, and is usually only found in cheap clone motherboards most typically used in computers assembled by junior high school students in their parents garages or basements.

ALL OTHER Y2K BUGS ON PCS ARE SOFTWARE RELATED, AND CAN EASILY BE FIXED WITH SOFTWARE UPGRADES!

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An E-Mail Exchange between a "Portender of Doom" and Myself:

His initial message:

I just read your assessment of the Year 2000 problem. I am not flaming you, but I just do not agree with your assessment. On only one of your points about older PC's being replaced before the January 1, 2000, I know, from my own experience, of an organization with 6,000 networked PCs, half of which are of the XT and early AT types. These users will not replace these machines unless there is a compelling reason to do so. Unfortunately, they also use applications like DOS Word and DOS WordPerfect along with DOS Lotus 123 to maintain critical date sensitive information on these same machines. What will happen to these organizations? What is also troubling is that this organization has a half dozen or so counterparts in the same situation.

... I agree there is lots of hype associated with the Year 2000. I would suggest that most of it is coming from vendors trying to sell tools and/or services. Their marketing departments must have done the Web sites on the subject because I have seen exaggeration at its most extreme and boy have I seen sites on this subject. But, the sheer number of organizations (both Government and Private sector, as well as reputable companies and educational institutions) giving attention to Y2K is clear evidence that a definite problem exists. ...

My reply:

And if they [the XT and early AT types] are on a network, they should be getting the current date and time from the network servers. So who cares if the BIOS can't support the year 2000; as soon as the computer boots up, the OS gets the correct date from the network.

Just out of curiosity, who cares if a word processing program is Y2K compliant? And what happens if it isn't?

The only real problem organizations will encounter (vis-a-vis Y2K and desktop computers) is with custom applications, mostly developed in-house but occasionally developed by a short sighted "professional programmer", which could have been written Y2K compliant but wasn't (or short sighted data entry people who could have entered the century but didn't).

Granted, some people have been touched by Y2K already, and more will follow, but I don't think it will be a catastrophe. No doubt, some organizations will be hurt, but few critically, I believe.

I wouldn't characterize anyone associated with this topic as a "Chicken Little", but I will say there are a lot of people going around the block to get next door.

His reply:

Well, all I can say is good luck to your Year 2000 clients.


As a footnote, T C Solutions doesn't have any Y2K clients. We have clients that have had some Y2K concerns, but we ran each of their systems through a Y2K "dry run" and showed them that the existing configuration that we had established prior to the Y2K scare was already "Y2K compliant".

If you do it right, you usually don't have to do it over. T C Solutions doesn't charge for do-overs (in the unlikely event that a do-over is necessary.)

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Two Digits for a Date - Anonymous

To the tune of the theme from Gilligan's Island:

Just sit right back and you'll hear a tale
Of the doom that is our fate.
That started when programmers used
Two digits for a date.
Two digits for a date.

Main memory was smaller then;
Hard disks were smaller, too.
"Four digits are extravagant,
So let's get by with two.
So let's get by with two."

"This works through 1999,"
The programmers did say.
"Unless we rewrite before that
It all will go away.
It all will go away."

But Management had not a clue:
"It works fine now, you bet!
A rewrite is a straight expense;
We won't do it just yet.
We won't do it just yet."

Now when 2000 rolls around
It all goes straight to hell,
For zero's less than ninety-nine,
As anyone can tell.
As anyone can tell.

The mail won't bring your pension check
It won't be sent to you
When you're no longer sixty-eight,
But minus thirty-two.
But minus thirty-two.

The problems we're about to face
Are frightening, for sure.
And reading every line of code's
The only certain cure.
The only certain cure.

[key change, big finish]
There's not much time,
There's too much code.
(And Cobol-coders, few)
When the century is finished with,
We may be finished, too.
We may be finished, too.

Eight thousand years from now I hope
That things weren't left too late,
And people aren't then lamenting
Four digits for a date.
Four digits for a date.

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